NFL
Model Accuracy
This page defaults to verified pregame predictions only. Retrospective backtests and experimental scenarios are reported separately and never enter these totals.
Eligible verified pregame predictions: 0. No verified pregame predictions have been published yet, so no accuracy can be reported.
Verified Performance
Every metric is computed from stored frozen predictions and stored results. Nothing is imported as a quoted percentage.
No verified performance to report
No frozen pregame predictions have been graded against final results yet, so winner accuracy, mean absolute margin error, RMSE, signed error, within-3/7/10 rates and ATS records are all unavailable.
Definitions in use
- Error = Actual Home Margin − Predicted Home Margin.
- Winner accuracy = correct non-tied winner calls ÷ eligible decided winner calls. Model pick'ems and actual ties are excluded from that denominator and counted separately.
- ATS settlement for a home lean = Actual Home Margin + Frozen Market Home Spread.
- Pushes are excluded from ATS win-percentage decisions. Missing lines are not bets.
- Rounding is applied for display only, never before grading.
Favourite-size buckets
Continuous and non-overlapping, so decimal projections such as 3.2 or 7.3 always fall in a bucket.
- 0 to <3 points — sample size 0
- 3 to <7 points — sample size 0
- 7 to <14 points — sample size 0
- 14 to <21 points — sample size 0
- 21+ points — sample size 0